Mio commento alla BBC sull’Ucraina

Mi hanno chiesto un’opinione sulla possibilita’ che l’Unione Europea imponga sanzioni alla Russia per le vicende legate all’Ucraina. La mia opinione e’ che penso sia prematuro parlarne e che, eventualmente, si dovrebbe trattare solo di sanzioni mirate ad individui ‘operativi’ senza toccare i livelli alti del potere. In tal caso, l’opzione piu’ probabile e’ il ricorso a restrizione all’accesso all’UE, sanzioni definite travel ban. La crisi non e’ ancora matura per un utilizzo efficace di sanzioni piu’ stringenti. Qua sotto il testo del mio commento, mentre per il testo integrale vedere il sito qua.

But Francesco Giumelli, an expert on international sanctions at the University of Groningen in the Netherlands, says these cannot just be used against any rich Russian. “It is legally very difficult… how do you link those people in the elite to specific actions in Crimea? You need to have proof that they’re involved in wrongdoing”.

He says travel bans – not financial measures – are the most likely first step, directed at generals or defence officials with a direct role in Crimea or, at a stretch, MPs who voted to support Russian action in Crimea. He says this might seem “symbolic” but shows a commitment to act, that could be escalated later – and the emphasis for now is likely to remain on mediation.

Taking aim with harsher measures at Mr Putin’s close circle or powerful businesses is likely only to provoke retaliation, he says, “and how does that help Ukraine?”

“It’s easy to say ‘we need to be strong’ but what if they [the Russians] say the same? I don’t think the EU has the will to raise it to a situation where somebody has to back down.”

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